MLB Bets 4/16

After a longer offseason than normal, thanks to the lockout, baseball is finally back! Here are some of my betting picks for this weekend’s slate. 

Yankees -1.5 (-120) at FanDuel

Jameson Taillon will take the hill for the Yankees in Baltimore on Saturday. In his first start of the season, he went 5 innings and gave up 2 runs to the best lineup in baseball behind the Dodgers. He struck out 6 but eventually got the loss as the Bronx bombers could not scratch across any runs on Alek Manoah. 

Tyler Wells will take the mound for the Orioles on Saturday. In his first start of the season on Sunday, Wells only lasted 1.2 innings, giving up 4 earned on 3 hits and 2 walks to the Rays. I think his struggles will continue against a Yankee lineup that is starting to get hot.

Red Sox ML -105

The Red Sox lineup is starting to get going after a relatively slow start in a tough opening series against the Yankees. In the last two games, they have put up 5 and 9 runs and that’s been without newly acquired slugger, Trevor Story, who missed the Tigers series due to food poisoning. I think their lineup continues to get hot in their first home series of the year. 

Along with that, Tanner Houch is starting for them on the mound. After watching him on Sunday night baseball, his numbers are very deceiving. Houck’s sinker and frisbee-like slider kept a great Yankees lineup off-balance, I think he will be able to do the same against the Twins. 

Since the Red Sox bullpen is atrocious, I would also consider taking Red Sox F5, but since they are home and their lineup is getting hot, I think there is value in -105. 

Athletics +1.5 (-105)

Paul Blackburn’s first start to the season could not have gone better. He ended up going 5 innings, 0 earned, striking out 7, and getting run support early. While the Blue Jays’ lineup is one of the best in baseball, they are tied for 6th in the MLB in strikeouts.

The A’s have shown they can score runs. They currently average 6 per game which is 3rd best in the MLB right now. Hyun Jin Ryu is scheduled to start on Saturday for Toronto. He did not have the best second half last season and that seems to have bled over into this year. In his first start, he gave up 5 hits and 6 earned runs in just 3.1 innings. It’s also important to note, that away teams are covering at a 61.2% clip against the spread this year, while away dogs are 67.2%. 

Until Ryu proves otherwise, I think it’s safe to bet against him, betting against the Jays lineup is where it gets dicey, but I think there is value in A’s +1.5 (-105).

Washington and Pittsburgh under 9 (+100)

I don’t have much analysis on this other than both teams are not very good and I’m not expecting many runs. Pittsburgh averages 4.5 runs per game while Washington averages 3.75. The under has hit 59.8% so far this year as well and with the value here I think it’s a good play.

So there you have it, enjoy a weekend full of baseball, and best of luck!

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